SL Market Analysis

Looking into the crystal ball for 2007

February 2007

With 2007 well underway, I thought we should have a look at the general market conditions relative to the various generations of the SL. With over 460 SLs available for sale on ourSL.com, we find ample pricing data via the asking prices noted in each listing.

Honing asking prices to reflect actual selling prices requires some sort of general downward price adjustment of the average asking prices. For the sake of this study, we'll use a 10% downward adjustment to approximate what a car might actually sell for.

I excluded the high and low asking prices in each analysis and did not include any car whose price was listed in Euros or British Pounds. The unfavorable exchange rate today would unfairly skew the results. When possible, I've interjected actual selling scenarios of cars I've personally sold to give you a glimpse of real world values.

In this edition we'll tackle the 121 chassis (190SL), 198 chassis (300SL Gullwing/Roadster), and the 113 chassis (230/250/280SL). We'll continue next month and cover the 107 chassis.

Keep in mind there are always anomalies, actual sales either far above or below my results. If you are aware of any interesting sales, please email the specifics to roy@ourSL.com . I'm basing my observations on asking prices from www.ourSL.com listings and my direct experiences selling these cars and anecdotal information from other sellers. As I collated the information, I generally erred on the conservative side to reflect more “real world” pricing.

I see 8 cars currently listed on the site with the average asking price of $43,462. Taking our 10% adjustment into account we come up with a probable average selling price of $39,510, a slightly high figure based on our actual sales last year. We sold 4 190SLs last year for an average of $36,625. Prices ranged from a $32,000 to $42,000. All but one went to Europe and all were structurally sound. Aside from the $32k car, each carried totally correct and original sheetmetal, a rarity in the 190SL world. And I considered 2 of them fabulous “survivor” examples. A nicely restored car sold off the site for $55k which was market correct based on the effort involved to create the car. We found a relative lack of buyer support for these cars in the United States in 2006. The strong Euro drove and will continue to drive these sales to Europe .

Weak domestic demand for 190SLs will keep market flat for 2007

The Black Book CPI (Cars of Particular Interest) guide is remarkably accurate with these cars and notes the following:

Yes, nut and bolt correctly restored 190SLs do sell for $70k and we have heard of sales even higher but these figures do not reflect the bulk of the market.

Going forward I see a flat market for the 190SL. Average examples will continue to sit and the great original cars will always find a home. Cheap (< $15k), solid and restorable 190SLs are in great demand.

The iconic Gullwings and 300SL Roadsters showed serious strength last year. We don't have enough cars on the site to form a picture of the market but having purchased and sold both a Gullwing and a 300SL Roadster last year has given me some insight. These were two of the easiest and quickest sales in recent memory and prompted me to pay careful attention to the market. The movement of the market in the last quarter of 2006 took even the well known 300SL specialists by surprise. I offered both my Gullwing and Roadster to experienced restorers/brokers and was told I was seriously off the market for what were running and driving restoration projects. Both cars sold immediately mid-year to European buyers. The roadster is still sitting in our facility and I was asked to offer the new owner a $55k profit in early January 2007…which he turned down! He is going to store this car and the two others recently purchased believing the market will advance a further 80% over the next 3-4 years. My Gullwing also has risen substantially since sold in June 2007 and would bring $40k more today.

Gullwings could rise 20% over next 12 months!

That being said, today's market recognizes $300k or so for a complete running and driving restoration project Gullwing. A well documented, fully sorted Gullwing with all luggage/tools/handbooks and a restoration by one of the “name” restorers in its history will bring $525k. Add in some special equipment, race/rally history and you can see another $100k. Rudge wheels add about $40k to the picture. Alloy coachwork adds another $400k to the picture.

The Roadster picture is similar although there are a few demarcation points: disc brake cars and then the disc brake/alloy block cars. Special equipment and high compression engines add serious value as well. $400k buys a very nice, well sorted street car and there is one currently on the site ready to go. A hardtop adds $15k and again, Rudge wheels are worth about $40k. I watched the drum brake steel block Burgundy 1958 roadster sell at

300SL Roadsters in demand at the moment and could also rise 20% in 2007!

RM auction last August for $550ish which became just over $600k with the buyer's premium included. This was a spectacular rudge wheel car w/hardtop and high compression engine. And it benefited by having a full restoration by a noted SL specialist in its recent history. But most pundits did not expect that selling price.

It's interesting to note it costs roughly $185k to fully restore one of these cars so the math is fairly easy to compute once a restorable car is found.

The Black Book CPI Guide is somewhat behind the current market and reflects the following:

Finding a 300SL roadster for $186k is now becoming a dream and would require an extraordinary stroke of good luck. A Gullwing at $228k would be a lucky find as well. CPI showed values of these cars to be flat from July 2006- February 2007, an incorrect market analysis.

Let's come back down to earth and move on to the 113 chassis cars.

113 Chassis (230/250/280SL)

I see 14 230SLs currently on the site and removing the $60,000 and $12,900 examples and ignoring the cars requiring payment in Euros or English Pounds we end up with an average asking price of $21,493. This becomes $19,539 after our 10% “real world” adjustment which gives us a somewhat high value for a 230SL. These cars will forever be held back by their similar although universally more popular 280SL cousins. The caveat here is the unique, dead correct and unmolested original car with full records, tools and virgin structure will exceed that average figure. A mint original 230SL can move into the mid $25k range and we have seen nut and bolt restored cars bring $40k+. Those cars and numbers are very rare, however.

Prices for excellent, correct 230SLs should move up slightly for 2007

I sold 4 230SLs last year for prices ranging from $9,900 to $17,000. The $17k car was a lovely one family owned manual gearbox car with a nice patina of age, but no hard top and slightly noisy differential. It was, however, the holy-grail in a 230SL with perfect, never touched structure, and massive documentation from its single family California ownership. Adjusting for no hard top, the price was in line with the average value of the cars currently listed on the site.

I'm moderately bullish on great 230SLs simply because I'm bullish on 280SLs because, as 280SLs rise, the 230SLs will follow as less expensive alternatives. The 230SL returns 90% of the enjoyment of a 280SL but is worth about 40% less. 2007 will likely see more 230SLs trading above $20k.

Black Book's CPI Guide is accurate on this car and reflects the following:

Although the 250SL has the lowest production numbers of the different 113 generations (5,196 constructed), its pricing follows the 230SL. You wouldn't know that by looking at the three cars currently listed on the site as they average $26,965! We'll presume they are all particularly high caliber cars. However, I feel the current and future values will be in line with the 230SL. I would add $1,500 to my 230SL estimations.

250SL prices will follow 230SL trend for 2007

The Black Book is again in line with my feelings reflecting the following prices:

Those of us restoring and selling 280SLs have been waiting for some years for values to reflect the costs to correctly prepare these cars. With Mercedes parts prices rising dramatically over the last 24 months, restoration costs for these great cars have risen considerably. And I believe we are finally seeing some upward movement in sales prices. More and more of my compatriots who prepare 280SLs to high levels are realizing superb street cars need to sell in the $40k-$45k range to justify the effort and expense. The Mercedes Classic Center sold a spectacular car for well over $70k and our friend Gernold Nisius restored a car for a client to the tune of $120k! Those sales really don't reflect the meat of the market, however.

There are 23 280SLs currently listed on the site and after tossing the $75,000 and $22,500 examples, the result is an average asking price of $31,913. After the 10% adjustment, I come up with an average selling estimate of $28,721. If you take into account that we routinely spend $10k on cars private sellers are convinced are “ready to go,” this figure is somewhat optimistic.

Seller naivety usually contributes to sub-standard cars being priced in line with up to date, structurally correct examples. I know of a 280SL currently listed for well above $30k whose owner persuaded the Mercedes Classic Center to consider it for purchase. The car was shipped half way across the country to Mercedes for inspection. After looking at the car for about 3 minutes, the experts at Mercedes said “no thank you” and shipped the car back. It seems the front structure of the car had been reconstructed due to accident or rust damage. The seller, however, was convinced he had a car suitable for Mercedes -Benz to showcase! I thought this was very amusing as I had considered buying the same car but rejected it because the owner, who considered himself an expert, couldn't accurately describe to me the specific structural condition. That was a serious case of “seller naivety.”

Superb 280SLs should rise 5%-10% for 2007

I sold 17 280SLs last year with prices ranging from $8k (serious engine problems and moderate rust) to $30k. I have seen many cars selling well over $30k from dealers who are long on marketing skills and low on disclosure skills. The market likes either very cheap but solid cars or highly prepared and/or shiny cars. The average cars with suspicious accident/rust repairs are left behind due to the cost of reconditioning. It will take a major surge in values to make a tired 280SL with a cobbled together structure attractive to restore. My current offering is a spectacular, though not concours, 1970 with 57k miles offered at $44k. That SHOULD be the market based on what it took to prepare it, but no one has stepped forward to own it as yet. The demand in 2006 was from Europe and focused on structurally correct, running and driving but weathered examples. Of the 17 examples I sold, only 2 stayed in the states, indicating a curious lack of demand for these cars by domestic enthusiasts. A great 280SL still remains the best SL value. They are bonafide worldwide collectables, daily usable with universally admired styling and panache.

The CPI Guide splits the 280SL production into two categories and shows the following:

I feel these figures represent where the values SHOULD be but I don't feel the market is yet consistently recognizing these values. I'm bullish on 280SLs for 2007 and feel we'll see values for the excellent, correct and unmolested cars creep closer to these values.

I think that is enough SL information to digest for the time being! Next month we'll move to the many variants of the venerable 107 chassis. If you have any comments about this analysis, please email me at roy@ourSL.com

Roy Spencer,
founder www.ourSL.com